33 Years of Zero Emmissions = 1 degree F

33 years of zero

I have written on numerous occasions about ACGW, including The Air We Breathe. The point there was to illustrate the small percentage of the atmosphere that CO2 actually composes. Moreover, our (human-kind) contribution is even more trivial. Altering our fundamental economic life to effect a profoundly trivial change is irrational.

Lord Monckton has taken this matter to a different level( as illustrated by Albert Einstein).. His initial point is that there is no point in doing anything to curb our carbon emissions because the IPCC’s calculations were grossly exaggerated. But his next step is bolder – even if we assume the UN is correct about CO2’s effects on temperature, it still is folly to attempt to affect any meaningful change; it is a matter of degrees of magnitude.

Here’s the thread of Monckton’s thesis:

According to the UN, Global CO2 emissions at present are 30 billion tons/year (EIA). That level represents approximately a rise in atmospheric concentrations of roughly 2 ppmv/year (NOAA).

Therefore, 15 billion tons emitted will increase atmospheric concentration by 1 ppmv/year (30/2). The UN (IPCC, 2007; see also BERN climate model) believes CO2 concentrations in 2100 will be 836 ppmv with no changes in emission trends. Since concentrations at the beginning of the century were roughly 368 ppmv (currently around 385), the implication is an addition from 2000 of 468 ppmv.

If you multiply 468 ppmv by the 15 billion tons/ppmv, the UN is implicitly projecting the world will emit approximately 7.0 trillion tons of CO2 by 2100. Moreover, such an increase in CO2 is also projected (IPCC, 2007) to raise global temperature by about 7° F.

Therefore, using their numbers from the turn of the century, 1 trillion tons of CO2 emission results in a 1° F warming.

If you divide 1 trillion by the 30 billion we are currently emitting (annually), you will arrive at the number of years needed, with ZERO emissions, to lower the temperature by 1 degree F. The result is 33 years of zero emissions; therefore, no cars, no factories, no CO2 emitting economic activity for all intents and purposes for 33 years to lower the temperature 1 degree F.

Well, actually, 200 years…

You see, according to Lindzen’s paper in 2009, the UN has exaggerated the warming effect of CO2 sixfold, which would mean it would take 200 years, not 33.

Therefore, there is simply no rational reason to engage in strangling the economies of the world, or creating a climate treaty, because the costs associated with such nonsense are astronomically disproportionate to any supposed benefit.

h/t to Lord Monckton..

(Also see Lindzen (2007) )


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